Abstract: The assessment of policy effectiveness has focused on measuring the extent to which the overall policy goals have been achieved. Guided by the theoretical model of policy goal achievement evaluation, this paper establishes an index system that integrates both factual data and value-based criteria to evaluate policy effectiveness and identify influencing factors. This paper adopts the multi-dimensional evaluation method which includes eight key dimensions: benefit, efficiency, adequacy, economy, fairness, responsiveness, appropriateness and stability. Data were collected through questionnaire survey and expert interview in Gansu and Shaanxi provinces. The analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight of indicators, while the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method quantified the policy effect. The results show that the overall effectiveness of the policy is high, especially in terms of adequacy and benefit, while f responsiveness and fairness demonstrate lower performance. Disparities exist between urban and rural areas as well as regional differences. Further analysis of the factors influencing policy effectiveness, employing the Horn-Mitter model, revealed that policy objectives and standards, resources, implementation and intervention, and environmental conditions significantly affect outcomes. The research shows that policy implementation and intervention are the core of policy effectiveness, while policy standards and objectives play a “baton” role. It is recommended that policymakers prioritize fairness and responsiveness in future policy formulations, and enhance urban-rural and regional equity to batter meet the needs of the elderly.

Key words: policy evaluation, home community elderly care service policy, policy effect measurement index system